ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 05 2006 EASTERLY SHEAR ABATED SOMEWHAT OVER KRISTY AND IT APPEARED THAT THE CENTER HAD BECOME MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER RECENT IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS CLOSE TO NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST. THE EXTENT AND DEPTH OF THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...AND THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE VARIOUS AGENCIES RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TO 35 KT. THIS IS PROBABLY JUST ANOTHER ONE OF KRISTY'S INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS...AND SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN AN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK SHEAR AND MARGINAL SST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME MORE HOSTILE DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO BE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF KRISTY AROUND 120 HOURS...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE. MY INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN FOR AN EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KRISTY IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT SOUTH OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS MOVES KRISTY SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN ANY OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND IS PROBABLY BASED ON NEAR-SURFACE STEERING WINDS FOR A VERY WEAK SYSTEM. WHILE THIS MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE CORRECT SOLUTION...IT IS PREFERABLE TO MAINTAIN MORE CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND TO BE CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 17.1N 123.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 17.4N 125.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 17.8N 127.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 07/1200Z 18.0N 129.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 08/0000Z 18.0N 130.7W 45 KT 72HR VT 09/0000Z 18.0N 133.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 10/0000Z 18.5N 136.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 11/0000Z 19.0N 139.5W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC