ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TD-12E HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND EXPANDED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SO THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM KRISTY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 305/6...BASED ON A BLEND OF INFRARED SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT WIND DATA. KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLOWER THAN AVERAGE FORWARD SPEED OF 6-8 KT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TOWARD A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS SITUATED BETWEEN 120-130W LONGITUDE. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH CREATING THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF KRISTY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO...BUT NORTH OF...THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. KRISTY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 28-29C SSTS AND IN A VERY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OF LESS THAN 5 KT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...SO AT LEAST STEADY STRENGTHENING SEEMS REASONABLE. GIVEN THAT KRISTY IS A SMALL AND TIGHT CIRCULATION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD INTENSIFY FASTER THAN THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING AND BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 16.5N 114.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 17.0N 115.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 31/0600Z 17.6N 116.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 31/1800Z 18.2N 117.6W 55 KT 48HR VT 01/0600Z 18.7N 118.8W 65 KT 72HR VT 02/0600Z 19.5N 121.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 03/0600Z 20.0N 123.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 04/0600Z 20.0N 126.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC