ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 PM PDT MON AUG 28 2006 JOHN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH VIGOROUS CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE ESTIMATED CENTER. IN FACT...THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES A BANDING EYE MAY BE FORMING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 45 AND 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KT IS SET AT THE HIGH END OF THIS RANGE AND IS CLOSE TO THE UW-CIMSS RAW ADT VALUES BASED ON THE MUCH IMPROVE SATELLITE APPEARANCE. JOHN APPEARS TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A NEAR OPTIMAL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS JOHN BECOMING AT CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WITHIN 48 HOURS AND THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES A 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRING JOHN CLOSE TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 48 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/06 IS BASED ON A RECENT AMSR-E MICROWAVE FIX AT 1937 UTC. JOHN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED IS EXPECTED AS JOHN MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE WITH THE GFDL BEING ON THE FAR RIGHT OR EAST SIDE OF THE MODEL SUITE AND THE GFS BEING ON THE FAR LEFT OR WEST SIDE. THE GFS ANALYSIS OF JOHN APPEARS MUCH TOO WEAK AND SHALLOW...RESULTING IN A DUE WEST MOTION INITIALLY. THIS SOLUTION APPEARS LESS LIKELY...THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFDL MODEL. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS JOHN PARALLELING THE COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE TRACK TO THE COAST AND THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 13.9N 97.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 14.3N 98.3W 65 KT 24HR VT 30/0000Z 14.8N 99.7W 80 KT 36HR VT 30/1200Z 15.5N 101.5W 90 KT 48HR VT 31/0000Z 16.3N 103.4W 95 KT 72HR VT 01/0000Z 19.4N 108.0W 95 KT 96HR VT 02/0000Z 21.5N 112.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 03/0000Z 22.0N 115.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC