ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 25 2006 IN ADDITION TO WARMING CLOUDS TOPS...ILEANA IS BEGINNING TO LOSE ITS STRUCTURE WITH THE EYE BECOMING GRADUALLY LESS DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT BASED AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING. ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS AND ENTRAINS DRY STABLE AIR. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HR AND BE DISSIPATED BY 120 HR. ILEANA HAS WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK YIELDING A SHORT-TERM MOTION OF ABOUT 320/5. A LONGER TERM MOTION OF 305/5 IS USED FOR THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE. IGNORING THE GFS AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE CONSENSUS-BASED TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ILEANA SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN WEST AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SAME GENERAL REASONING AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN LINE WITH THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL. THE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT BASED ON REPORTS FROM SHIP DGSR. THE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE CONTRACTED IN ALL QUADRANTS BASED ON THE LAST QUIKSCAT DATA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 22.0N 117.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 22.4N 117.9W 55 KT 24HR VT 26/1800Z 22.8N 119.1W 45 KT 36HR VT 27/0600Z 23.0N 120.4W 35 KT 48HR VT 27/1800Z 23.0N 122.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 28/1800Z 23.0N 124.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/1800Z 23.0N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC