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Hurricane ILEANA (Text)

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HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 25 2006

HURRICANE ILEANA HAS RESUMED THE WEAKENING PROCESS...AFTER
MAINTAINING 80 KT IN THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS.  ENHANCED IR AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE HAS EXPANDED AND OPENED TO THE
NORTHEAST...WITH REDUCED CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE.  THE OUTER
EYEWALL RAINFALL STRUCTURE...DEPICTED IN THE 0405Z SSM/I 85 GHZ
IMAGERY...IS REDUCED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MICROWAVE PASSES.

THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS ARE CONTROLLING INTENSITY CHANGE...COOLER
SST...LESS THAN 26C...AND DRY AIR INTRUSION INTO THE NORTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE...DESPITE LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  ILEANA IS FORECAST
TO DROP BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AFTER 36 HOURS AND BECOME A
REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS.

STORM MOTION HAS BECOME MORE WESTWARD...CONSEQUENTLY, OUR TRACK
FORECAST IS SHIFTED LEFTWARD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND FOLLOWS MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 36 HOURS.  AS ILEANA
BECOMES A DEPRESSION AT 48 HOURS, WE FAVOR THE ECMWF, GFS AND
CANADIAN GEM SOLUTIONS.  THESE MODELS WERE INITIALIZED WITH A WEAK
SHALLOW CYCLONE THAT MOVES WITH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.

THE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BASED ON AN
EXCELLENT 0218Z QUIKSCAT PASS, TWO EXPERIMENTAL SATELLITE-BASED
ESTIMATES FROM CIRA AND CIMSS, AND 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0900Z 21.3N 116.7W    75 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 21.6N 117.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 22.0N 118.4W    55 KT
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 22.1N 119.4W    40 KT
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 22.0N 120.6W    30 KT
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 21.6N 122.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     29/0600Z 21.0N 124.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA
 
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