ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT ILEANA HAS DEVELOPED A WELL DEFINED 30 NMI EYE THIS EVENING...WITH THE EYE WALL NOW COMPLETELY CLOSED OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA...77 KT FROM TAFB...AND A 77 KT 6 HOUR AVG FROM THE CIMSS ADT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNTOUCHED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE TO 90 KT IN 12 HOURS BASED OFF OF A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS...AND THE RECENT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE CORE STRUCTURE AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW. THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INDICATE FURTHER STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...AS ILEANA MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/14. THE GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER ILEANA...WITH A MOTION MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE SHALLOW LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SOLUTION SUGGESTING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS...TOWARD A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. AFTERWARD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A TURN NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS...LARGE SCALE MODELS INDICATE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A REDUCTION IN FORWARD MOTION AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THE GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 16.6N 109.2W 75 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 17.6N 110.9W 90 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 19.0N 113.1W 100 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 20.0N 115.0W 100 KT 48HR VT 25/0000Z 20.7N 116.4W 90 KT 72HR VT 26/0000Z 22.0N 118.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 27/0000Z 23.0N 120.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 28/0000Z 23.5N 122.0W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART NNNN
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