ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006 ILEANA'S CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH BETTER-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. HOWEVER THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS NOT INCREASED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...45 KT...AND 45 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY. ALSO...OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS YIELD AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AN 0308 UTC SSM/I IMAGE SUGGESTED A WELL-ORGANIZED...AND PERHAPS STRONGER...SYSTEM. HOWEVER THERE IS NO OPERATIONALLY-ACCEPTED TECHNIQUES FOR ESTIMATING INTENSITY FROM SUCH IMAGERY. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET...PERHAPS CONSERVATIVELY...AT 45 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUCH AS SSTS... VERTICAL SHEAR...MOIST MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR...AND INSTABILITY...ALL APPEAR TO BE PROPITIOUS FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY STRENGTHENING UP TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...DECREASING SSTS ARE LIKELY TO INDUCE SLOW WEAKENING. INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 295/12. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE GFS PREDICTS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW OFF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BY THAT TIME...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT ILEANA WILL BE WEAKENING...AND NOT RESPOND SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS RATHER CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 14.0N 105.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 15.0N 107.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 16.3N 109.5W 70 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 17.6N 111.6W 80 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 18.8N 113.6W 90 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W 85 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 21.5N 119.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 27/0600Z 22.5N 121.5W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC