ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 19 2006 HECTOR'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AND THE EYE IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE IN CONVECTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN FACT...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING ASYMMETRIC DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS NOTED BY THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE SLOWLY DECREASED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING SINCE THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WEAKENS HECTOR TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/11 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AS IT BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD TRACK RECORD WITH THIS STORM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 19.0N 132.1W 70 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 19.7N 133.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 134.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 21.2N 135.9W 35 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 21.7N 137.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 23/0000Z 22.2N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC