ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 19 2006 HECTOR'S OVERALL CONVECTION LOOKS A LITTLE MORE DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH VISIBLE IMAGES RECENTLY SHOW A FAINT EYE BREAKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS AT 1515 UTC SHOWED A SMALL DISPLACEMENT OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTERS OF THE CYCLONE...CONFIRMING A SUSPICION FROM THIS MORNING. THIS STRUCTURE IS PROBABLY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AS SEEN IN CIMSS ANALYSES...AND DRY STABLE AIR WHICH HAS INVADED THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 75 KT...IN BETWEEN THE T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...WHICH IS OUR USUAL OPERATIONAL PRACTICE FOR WEAKENING EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONES OVER COOLER WATERS. A STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICKER DEMISE TOMORROW AFTER HECTOR ENCOUNTERS SSTS LESS THAN 24C AND WESTERLY WIND SHEAR GREATER THAN 25 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHIPS. QUIKSCAT AND SSMIS MICROWAVE PASSES FROM AROUND 1500 UTC WERE VERY HELPFUL IN ESTABLISHING AN INITIAL MOTION...295/11. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH MOST MODELS CONTINUING ON A TRACK AROUND 300 DEGREES FOR A DAY OR TWO. THE UKMET CONTINUES TO BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE UNAFFECTED BY A WEAK BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHILE THE NOGAPS BARRELS THE HURRICANE IN A NORTHWESTWARD FASHION. WITH A WEAKENING CYCLONE...TRENDING SOUTH STILL SEEMS TO BE A GOOD IDEA AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN MODIFIED ON THE BASIS OF A 1421 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS AND THIS GENERAL WIND STRUCTURE IS CARRIED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF HECTOR'S LIFE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 18.3N 131.0W 75 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 19.0N 132.4W 65 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 19.8N 133.9W 50 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 20.5N 135.1W 35 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 21.0N 136.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 22/1800Z 21.5N 139.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 23/1800Z 22.0N 143.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC