ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 800 AM PDT THU AUG 17 2006 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED WHITE BAND OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 77 KT AND 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...AND ADT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST HECTOR IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN 70 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW CHANNEL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES OVER THE REMAINING PORTIONS. INTENSITY MODELS SUGGEST NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THEREFORE...A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST. AFTERWARD...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND WITHIN A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. BY DAY 3...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST OF HAWAII...ALONG 140W. THIS SCENARIO COULD INFLUENCE RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/11. HECTOR IS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO 27N130W FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...TURNING MORE NORTHWESTWARD THEREAFTER AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THE UKMET. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 14.7N 121.1W 75 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 15.3N 122.8W 80 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 16.2N 124.9W 80 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 17.1N 126.9W 75 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 18.0N 128.9W 70 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 20.0N 132.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 134.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 22/1200Z 22.5N 136.0W 25 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC