ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 800 PM PDT WED AUG 16 2006 THE INTENSIFICATION TREND THAT HECTOR WENT THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN A TEMPORARY HIATUS. CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOW BECOME A CONSENSUS 3.5 FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES AND JUSTIFY MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM AT AN INTENSITY OF 55 KT. HECTOR APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD JOG DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/9...BUT THIS COULD BE PART OF A SERIES OF WOBBLES AS THE CONVECTION TRIES TO ORGANIZE. NONETHELESS...THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY NUDGED FARTHER NORTH DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT MOTION...BUT THEN FALLS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND THAT. THIS TRACK IS ALSO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN ORDER TO PLACE LESS EMPHASIS ON THE UKMET MODEL...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE HAD A SOUTHWARD BIAS SO FAR. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HECTOR MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO STRENGTHEN AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BECOME MARGINAL AT 48 HOURS AND THE STORM IS ALREADY MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OF STRATOCUMULUS TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND ONLY STRENGTHENS HECTOR TO 75 KT BY 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE THEIR TOLL WITH HECTOR LIKELY TO BECOME A DEPRESSION BY 120 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 14.3N 118.6W 55 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 14.7N 119.7W 65 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 15.4N 121.4W 70 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 16.2N 123.5W 75 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 17.0N 125.6W 70 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 19.0N 129.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 21.0N 132.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 22/0000Z 22.5N 134.5W 25 KT $$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC