ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 800 AM PDT WED AUG 16 2006 ALL INDICATIONS FROM GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING ARE THAT HECTOR IS STRENGTHENING...BUT JUST HOW STRONG IS SUBJECT TO SOME SPECULATION...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE WELL-EMBEDDED BENEATH THE MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A TRMM OVERPASS FROM 1052Z SUGGESTED THE CENTER WAS STILL TENDING TOWARD THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 55 KT...IN LARGE PART DUE TO THE LOCATION UNCERTAINTY. GIVEN THE CENTER LOCATION SUGGESTED BY THE TRMM DATA...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE HIGH END OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES...AND HECTOR COULD BECOME A HURRICANE VERY SOON. INDEED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ANTICIPATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KT AT 36-48 HOURS...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. HECTOR CONTINUES WESTWARD FOR NOW...270 DEGREES AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS AND EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC. HECTOR WILL PROBABLY SOON START MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT REACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 125 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST SOMEWHAT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO THE NORTH OF HECTOR...BUT WITH JUST ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. A COUPLE OF OUTLIERS REMAIN ON BOTH SIDES OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE...WITH THE NOGAPS AND GFDN ON THE NORTH AND THE UKMET ON THE SOUTH. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODELS IN THE MIDDLE...THE GFDL AND GFS...AND IS NUDGED JUST A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK...TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 13.0N 117.2W 55 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 13.4N 118.7W 65 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 13.9N 120.7W 75 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 14.6N 122.7W 80 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 15.3N 124.6W 80 KT 72HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 128.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 20/1200Z 19.0N 132.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 21/1200Z 20.5N 135.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC