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Tropical Storm EMILIA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006
200 PM PDT WED JUL 26 2006
 
EMILIA IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING UNDER THE INHIBITING
INFLUENCE OF 22C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  STABLE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE BECOMING ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION AND CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE
DATA-T NUMBERS AND THE CURRENT INTENSITIES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.
AS A RESULT OF COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS...EMILIA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT RAPIDLY TO A REMNANT LOW IN
36 HOURS.
 
EMILIA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 320/10.  THE
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND A
WEAK TROUGH TO THE WEST.  TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS THE SAME.  A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS IN 72 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
 
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/2100Z 25.5N 114.4W    55 KT
 12HR VT     27/0600Z 26.3N 115.7W    45 KT
 24HR VT     27/1800Z 27.2N 117.3W    30 KT
 36HR VT     28/0600Z 27.7N 118.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     28/1800Z 28.2N 119.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
 
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