ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006 SEVERAL HOURS AGO...EMILIA WAS NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF A TROPICAL STORM. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS ILL-DEFINED AT BEST ON VARIOUS MICROWAVE OVERPASSES...AND THERE WAS LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES ON GEOSTATIONARY IR IMAGES. IN FACT...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0145 UTC SHOWED HIGHEST WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER THESE WERE LIKELY RAIN-CONTAMINATED VECTORS AND...ASSUMING THAT THE ACTUAL INTENSITY WAS 40 KT...IT COULD BE ASSUMED THAT THERE WAS SOME ATTENUATION OF THE SPEED MEASUREMENTS DUE TO PRECIPITATION. AN ALTERNATIVE INTERPRETATION WOULD BE THAT EMILIA WAS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ESTIMATED EARLIER. HAVING SAID THAT...LATEST IR IMAGES SHOW INCREASING CONVECTION WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES DEVELOPING. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND AFWA. EMILIA SHOULD BE TRAVERSING WARM WATERS AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME VERY WEAK WHICH WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN CENTER FIXES...AS MUCH AS 75 N MI. HOWEVER THE VARIOUS MICROWAVE IMAGES...ESPECIALLY AN 0524 UTC AMSU-B PASS...SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER IS TO THE WEST OF OUR PREVIOUS TRACK. INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 310/10. ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...A LARGE AND POWERFUL MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE MOTION OF EMILIA WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. APPARENTLY THE STORM IS ALREADY RESPONDING TO INCREASED RIDGING TO ITS NORTH SINCE THE HEADING SEEMS TO BE BENDING TO THE LEFT. BASED ON THE MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST U.K. MET. OFFICE FORECAST TRACK AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...CONU. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 17.8N 106.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 18.6N 107.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 19.3N 109.2W 60 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 20.0N 110.7W 70 KT 48HR VT 25/0600Z 20.7N 112.2W 75 KT 72HR VT 26/0600Z 22.0N 115.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 27/0600Z 23.5N 117.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 28/0600Z 25.5N 120.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC