ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006 THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT NHC HAS BEEN MONITORING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS SHEARED AND THE CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE EAST THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RELAX AND THE OCEAN IS WARM. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS. THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...SO A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS INDICATED FOR A DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED AS A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. BOTH ECMWF AND THE GFDL HAVE A MORE AGGRESSIVE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO OPTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 12.1N 103.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 12.3N 103.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 13.0N 104.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 14.0N 106.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 23/1200Z 15.0N 107.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 24/1200Z 17.0N 109.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 25/1200Z 19.0N 112.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 26/1200Z 22.0N 115.0W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC