ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006 CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS HAVE STARTED TO DECREASE. HOWEVER...DUE TO DVORAK INITIAL WEAKENING CONSTRAINTS CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES REMAIN 127 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 125 KT AND IT APPEARS THAT DANIEL HAS FINALLY STARTED ITS MUCH ANTICIPATED SLOW WEAKENING. A STRONG MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 28N139W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STEERING THE HURRICANE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ALLOWING THE HURRICANE TO DECELERATE. 18Z DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD SHIFT. ONCE AGAIN THE GFDL SHIFTED WESTWARD AND IS NOW VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS...AND INDEED...THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL THAN EARLIER TODAY. THE OUTLIER IS THE UKMET... WHICH IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE. THE UKMET CANNOT BE TOTALLY DISCOUNTED AS IT HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. DANIEL IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARMER WATER FOR A BIT LONGER AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY INDICATES GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 48 HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK LATER IN THE PERIOD...DANIEL WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER 25C WATER FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND DOES NOT INDICATE AS MUCH WEAKENING AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED INWARD SLIGHTLY...BASED ON A 1445 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 14.0N 131.9W 125 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 14.3N 133.5W 115 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 14.8N 135.4W 105 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 15.3N 137.4W 95 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 15.8N 139.0W 85 KT 72HR VT 25/1800Z 16.8N 141.2W 70 KT 96HR VT 26/1800Z 18.0N 143.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 27/1800Z 19.5N 148.5W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC