ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 800 AM PDT THU JUL 20 2006 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A RATHER SYMMETRIC ANNULAR- TYPE HURRICANE WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE ABOUT 25-30 NM IN DIAMETER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM AFWA AND 102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. RECENT RAW OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND CIMSS ARE BETWEEN T6.0 AND 6.5...115 TO 127 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT. THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE CORRECT. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN GAINING SOME LATITUDE AND APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/8. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE GFDL TURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD...AS THE MODEL DEVELOPS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET KEEP ENOUGH RIDGING NORTH OF HURRICANE TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING. THE CURRENT TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND DISCOUNTS THE GFDL SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE CAPS THE HURRICANE AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY. IT IS ASSUMED THAT DANIEL WILL STRENGTHEN FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...REACHING CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH. THEREAFTER...SSTS WILL GRADUALLY COOL AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...SO A GRADUALLY WEAKENING IS FORECAST. DUE TO DANIEL'S ANNULAR APPEARANCE IT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE INDICATES. HOWEVER...AFTER 72 HOURS DANIEL SHOULD BE TRAVERSING OVER SUB 26 DEGREE WATER AND WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BE A BIT FASTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 12.5N 122.6W 110 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 12.9N 123.7W 115 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 13.3N 125.1W 115 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 13.8N 126.7W 105 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 14.3N 128.3W 90 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z 15.3N 131.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 24/1200Z 16.3N 134.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 25/1200Z 17.5N 137.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC