ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 800 AM PDT WED JUL 19 2006 DANIEL CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND EXHIBIT EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. A BANDING TYPE EYE HAS RECENTLY BECOME EVIDENT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 77 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES AND THE CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS CREPT UP TO 80 KT DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BECAUSE THE EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KT...A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE 1200 UTC SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. IT APPEARS THAT THE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION HAS ENDED AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/7. THIS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THE SYSTEM AND IMPART A GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...DANIEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL BUT IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECAST. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD START A SLOW WEAKENING TEND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 11.9N 119.6W 85 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 12.0N 120.7W 95 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 12.4N 122.3W 105 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 12.8N 123.9W 105 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 13.2N 125.8W 100 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 14.0N 129.5W 85 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z 14.8N 133.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 24/1200Z 16.0N 136.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC