ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 18 2006 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DANIEL CONTINUES TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN AND A BANDING TYPE EYE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE FORMING. ACCORDINGLY...DANIEL IS UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB...AND A 70 KT ESTIMATE FROM FROM UW CIMSS ADT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH...VERTICAL SHEAR IS VERY LOW...AND DANIEL IS LOCATED OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ALL OF THESE POSITIVE FACTORS POINT TO CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...PERHAPS EVEN RAPID STRENGTHENING. SINCE THE LATER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A STEADY INTENSIFICATION RATE TAKING DANIEL TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. INTERESTINGLY...THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS PREVIOUS AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS AND IS NOW IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. SHOULD DANIEL GO ON AND FORM AN EYE LATER TODAY...THE CYCLONE COULD STRENGTHEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE. DANIEL APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 265/11. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. THEREAFTER...THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS UNCHANGED. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF DANIEL BUILDING WESTWARD WITH THE CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THIS SHOULD KEEP DANIEL ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH DAY 2 FOLLOWED A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST. ONLY THE UKMET KEEPS THE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 11.9N 117.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 11.9N 119.1W 75 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 12.0N 121.0W 85 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 12.3N 122.7W 95 KT 48HR VT 20/1800Z 12.8N 124.4W 100 KT 72HR VT 21/1800Z 13.7N 127.8W 100 KT 96HR VT 22/1800Z 14.5N 131.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 23/1800Z 16.0N 135.0W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC