ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 16 2006 DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE LARGE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA REMAINS IMPRESSIVE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. HOWEVER...THE INABILITY TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY SPINNING DOWN AND BECOMING A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS OVER COOLER WATER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED AT 285/10. OWING TO ITS NOW VERTICALLY SHALLOW STRUCTURE...CARLOTTA WILL BE STEERED BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC EASTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 20.4N 122.4W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 17/0600Z 20.8N 123.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 17/1800Z 21.1N 125.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 18/0600Z 21.1N 127.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 18/1800Z 21.1N 129.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC