ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA CONTINUE TO WARM INDICATING GRADUAL WEAKENING. STILL...A RELATIVE WARM SPOT IS SEEN NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IMPLYING CARLOTTA IS STUBBORNLY HANGING ON TO HURRICANE STATUS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 4.5 OR 77 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB TO 4.0 OR 65 KT FROM AFWA. IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE CARLOTTA BEING A 77 KT HURRICANE GIVEN THE DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT IN LINE WITH THE LOWER END OF THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE RAW ODT VALUES. WHILE SATELLITE BASED SST ESTIMATES SHOW A SMALL AREA OF MARGINALLY WARM WATER IN THE VICINITY OF CARLOTTA...THE CYCLONE WILL SOON BE OVER MUCH COOLER WATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR RAPID WEAKENING MAKING CARLOTTA A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS. CARLOTTA APPEARS TO MOVING A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE WEST YIELDING AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/09. IN FACT...THE LAST COUPLE OF SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THIS IMPLIES THAT THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STEERING THE CYCLONE IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW CARLOTTA CONTINUING TO MAKE SOME POLEWARD PROGRESS THROUGH 24 TO 36 HOURS. IN LIGHT OF THE PRESENT TRENDS IN MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND LIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A DUE WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED IN LINE WITH THE BAM SHALLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 18.8N 117.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 19.0N 119.4W 60 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 19.2N 121.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 19.2N 123.4W 40 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 19.2N 125.0W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 18/1200Z 19.2N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC