ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 200 PM PDT WED JUL 12 2006 THE ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND BANDING FEATURES ARE NOW EVIDENT. CARLOTTA IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT CURRENTLY LACKS MUCH OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT IS A BLEND OF DVORAK CLASSIFICATION VALUES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA. A WARM WATER/LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL FOR CARLOTTA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS PREDICTED...IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE...THE SO-CALLED ICON. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD I EXPECT CARLOTTA TO BE TRAVERSING SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER WATERS...AND TO BE WEAKENING RATHER RAPIDLY. THE CENTER IS EASIER TO LOCATE ON VISIBLE IMAGES...NONETHELESS THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...290/12. A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF CARLOTTA...WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 30N-35N...SHOULD PROVIDE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING REGIME FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS UNREALISTIC. IN PARTICULAR...THE LATEST U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL INTEGRATION DEPICTS A DECOUPLING OF CARLOTTA BEGINNING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WITH THE 500 MB CENTER MOVING OFF TO THE WEST AND LEAVING THE SURFACE CENTER MEANDERING AND WEAKENING NEAR 110W LONGITUDE. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS UNREALISTIC FOR SUCH A LARGE DEVELOPING CYCLONE...AND SO THE U.K. MODEL IS DISREGARDED FOR THIS PACKAGE. . WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 15.3N 106.4W 50 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 15.8N 108.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 16.3N 110.0W 75 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 16.7N 112.0W 80 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 17.0N 114.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 15/1800Z 17.5N 117.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 16/1800Z 18.0N 119.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 17/1800Z 19.0N 122.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC