ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006 COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUE TO INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING OF BUD. THE HURRICANE IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE OVER SSTS OF LESS THAN 24C...AND ONLY A FEW CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -50C REMAIN. THE INTENSITY OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT WEAKENS DURING PASSAGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SST GRADIENT IS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE OF 75 KT AT 06Z WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS DVORAK DATA T AND CI NUMBERS. WITH THE CONVECTION QUICKLY ON THE DECLINE...THE 09Z ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT...AND BUD WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM SHORTLY. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BECOME A DEPRESSION NEAR THIS TIME TOMORROW...AND IT IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS OR LESS. BUD IS STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290 DEGREES AT ABOUT 13 KT...STEERED BY THE DEPENDABLE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND TURN THE WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG ABOUT 22N...AS GENERALLY AGREED UPON BY THE MODELS THAT RETAIN A CIRCULATION...SUCH AS THE GFDL AND NOGAPS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 19.5N 125.9W 70 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 20.1N 127.9W 50 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 20.9N 130.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 21.5N 133.1W 30 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 21.8N 135.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 17/0600Z 22.0N 141.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 18/0600Z 22.0N 146.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 19/0600Z 22.0N 150.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC