ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 200 PM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IT NOW CONSISTS OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. BASED ON T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS. THE UPPER- LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INTERACTING WITH LAND. THEREFORE...ONLY A 5-KNOT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. THIS BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL AND PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. THE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND APPEARS TO BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE RAIN IS ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND ACCORDING TO THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE...ACAPULCO HAS ALREADY REPORTED NEARLY 11 INCHES OF RAIN. GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON KEEPING A WEAKER CYCLONE MEANDERING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST FOR A FEW DAYS. IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE DEPRESSION COULD MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY LONGER INSTEAD OF DISSIPATING OVER LAND. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 16.7N 102.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 17.6N 101.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 18.0N 101.0W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 05/0600Z 18.0N 100.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC