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TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006
2100 UTC FRI SEP 29 2006
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) X(27)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 25(38) X(38)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 16(33) X(33)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 12(24) X(24)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) X(17)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) X(19)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 6(30) X(30)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 301N 578W 34 91 5(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
12 301N 578W 50 52 18(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71)
12 301N 578W 64 6 6(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
24 311N 591W 34 39 42(81) 8(89) 1(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91)
24 311N 591W 50 6 40(46) 12(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)
24 311N 591W 64 X 11(11) 6(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
36 325N 603W 34 5 35(40) 33(73) 9(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83)
36 325N 603W 50 X 10(10) 29(39) 9(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49)
36 325N 603W 64 X 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)
48 347N 610W 34 1 7( 8) 27(35) 25(60) 10(70) X(70) X(70)
48 347N 610W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 18(27) 7(34) X(34) X(34)
48 347N 610W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13)
72 435N 570W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 10(45) X(45)
72 435N 570W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) X(15)
72 435N 570W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
96 500N 480W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) X(26)
96 500N 480W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8)
96 500N 480W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55 60 65 60 55 50 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 29-Sep-2006 20:35:01 UTC