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TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006
1500 UTC THU SEP 28 2006
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 6(20)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) 1(10)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 289N 554W 34 66 17(83) 1(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85)
12 289N 554W 50 7 7(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
12 289N 554W 64 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
24 299N 566W 34 18 46(64) 10(74) 2(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77)
24 299N 566W 50 1 14(15) 8(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
24 299N 566W 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
36 309N 578W 34 2 31(33) 27(60) 6(66) 4(70) X(70) X(70)
36 309N 578W 50 X 4( 4) 16(20) 6(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28)
36 309N 578W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
48 322N 588W 34 1 8( 9) 28(37) 15(52) 8(60) 1(61) X(61)
48 322N 588W 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) 5(23) 1(24) X(24)
48 322N 588W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
72 355N 595W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 25(40) 8(48) 1(49)
72 355N 595W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) X(16)
72 355N 595W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
96 415N 560W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 8(34)
96 415N 560W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11)
96 415N 560W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
120 475N 465W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17)
120 475N 465W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
120 475N 465W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40 45 50 50 50 50 50
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 28-Sep-2006 14:40:01 UTC