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Hurricane GORDON (Text)

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HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
500 PM EDT WED SEP 13 2006
 
GORDON HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON.  THE EYE IS CLEAR
AND HAS WARMED TO 14 DEGREES CELSIUS WITH SURROUNDING DEEP
CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE HURRICANE BEING
INFLUENCED BY UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS AIDING IN THE
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW AND OVERALL ORGANIZATION.  DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 5.0 AND 4.5 RESPECTIVELY...AND ADT 3-HOUR
AVERAGE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ARE 5.2. SINCE THE OVERALL CLOUD
PATTERN HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT.
 
THERE ARE NO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD HAMPER FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND GORDON IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.  FOR THE FIRST 48 TO 72 HOURS...GORDON
WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN HURRICANE STATUS.  THEREAFTER...COOLER SSTS
AND A MORE HOSTILE LOWER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE GORDON TO
WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/10.  THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED.  GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IN THE SHORT-TERM WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED...AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS A WEAKNESS IN THE
STEERING PATTERN.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH AND INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE GFDL...FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/2100Z 27.0N  57.5W    95 KT
 12HR VT     14/0600Z 28.5N  57.0W   100 KT
 24HR VT     14/1800Z 30.2N  55.9W    95 KT
 36HR VT     15/0600Z 31.5N  54.7W    90 KT
 48HR VT     15/1800Z 32.5N  53.7W    85 KT
 72HR VT     16/1800Z 34.0N  52.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     17/1800Z 37.0N  48.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     18/1800Z 41.5N  40.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
 
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