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Tropical Storm GORDON (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006
 
A MICROWAVE PASS FROM 0730 UTC...A 1023 WINDSAT PASS AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY WERE INSTRUMENTAL IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF
GORDON. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA
AVERAGE 50 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE CYCLONE WHICH IS RESTRICTING THE OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT AND MAY ALSO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TEMPORARY LEVELING OFF
IN THE INTENSITY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...345/8. GORDON IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A NARROWING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH A PRONOUNCED BREAK IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE TO ITS NORTH. A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...LOCATED ABOUT 1000 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF
GORDON IS MOVING WESTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AS
INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS WILL ALLOW GORDON TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND SLOWLY RECURVE AFTER 48 HOURS. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. THE GFS...WHICH HAD BEEN AN
OUTLIER...NOW ALSO RECURVES GORDON. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
CONSENSUS.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
AND NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL WHICH MAKES GORDON A 95 KT
HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS. GORDON IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN
24 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR WEST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WHICH COULD BE ONE POSSIBLE INHIBITING
FACTOR IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO RECURVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND
ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY SHEAR...GORDON SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 23.4N  58.3W    50 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 24.4N  58.6W    55 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 25.8N  58.8W    65 KT
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 27.4N  58.8W    75 KT
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 29.0N  58.5W    75 KT
 72HR VT     15/1200Z 32.0N  57.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     16/1200Z 35.0N  54.5W    70 KT
120HR VT     17/1200Z 39.0N  49.0W    60 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER COBB/PASCH
 
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