ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1500 UTC MON SEP 04 2006 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 170N 440W 34 29 14(43) 2(45) X(45) X(45) 1(46) X(46) 12 170N 440W 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 12 170N 440W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 178N 456W 34 2 35(37) 10(47) 3(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) 24 178N 456W 50 X 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 24 178N 456W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 185N 471W 34 X 12(12) 28(40) 8(48) 4(52) 1(53) X(53) 36 185N 471W 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) 36 185N 471W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 48 192N 489W 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 20(35) 11(46) 3(49) X(49) 48 192N 489W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) 2(16) X(16) 48 192N 489W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 72 200N 520W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 24(33) 9(42) 3(45) 72 200N 520W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) 2(18) 72 200N 520W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 96 210N 555W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 17(29) 7(36) 96 210N 555W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) 96 210N 555W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 120 220N 590W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 11(24) 120 220N 590W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 120 220N 590W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 50 60 70 75 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:37 UTC