ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 2100 UTC THU AUG 31 2006 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TRENTON NJ 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) DOVER DE 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 1 4( 5) 9(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) WASHINGTON DC 34 1 4( 5) 10(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 3 19(22) 7(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) RICHMOND VA 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 5 17(22) 5(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) NORFOLK VA 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 12 15(27) X(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) RALEIGH NC 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 13 7(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 60 3(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) MOREHEAD CITY 50 5 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) WILMINGTON NC 34 93 2(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) WILMINGTON NC 50 38 3(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) WILMINGTON NC 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 78 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) MYRTLE BEACH 50 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) CHARLESTON SC 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 347N 780W 34 84 5(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 12 347N 780W 50 24 5(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 12 347N 780W 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 24 370N 775W 34 6 24(30) 5(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 24 370N 775W 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 24 370N 775W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 385N 775W 34 1 7( 8) 9(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 36 385N 775W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 36 385N 775W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48 410N 785W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 48 410N 785W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 410N 785W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50 30 25 25 0 0 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:36 UTC