ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1500 UTC MON AUG 28 2006 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 7(21) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 2(14) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 3(19) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 7(29) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 3(17) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 17(27) 5(32) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 15(30) 5(35) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 9(23) 3(26) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 12(34) 4(38) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 2(15) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 11(38) 3(41) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) 1(17) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 7(20) 2(22) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 11(37) 2(39) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) 1(13) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 25(35) 7(42) 2(44) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) 1(16) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 27(48) 4(52) 2(54) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 3(22) X(22) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) 20(50) 3(53) 1(54) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 2(21) X(21) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 27(34) 22(56) 3(59) 1(60) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) 2(25) X(25) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 30(44) 16(60) 2(62) X(62) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 11(25) 1(26) X(26) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) W PALM BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 21(23) 27(50) 13(63) 1(64) X(64) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 7(25) 1(26) X(26) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) MIAMI FL 34 X 3( 3) 34(37) 19(56) 9(65) 1(66) X(66) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 4(25) 1(26) X(26) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) MARATHON FL 34 X 4( 4) 32(36) 14(50) 4(54) 1(55) X(55) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 3(22) 1(23) X(23) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KEY WEST FL 34 X 3( 3) 21(24) 14(38) 4(42) 1(43) X(43) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MARCO ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 22(42) 10(52) 2(54) X(54) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 5(22) 1(23) X(23) MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 24(38) 13(51) 2(53) X(53) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 7(22) 1(23) X(23) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 21(29) 14(43) 4(47) X(47) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 2(18) X(18) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 17(41) 4(45) X(45) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 2(16) 1(17) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 18(30) 6(36) X(36) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) 1(12) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 4(19) 1(20) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 5(21) 1(22) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) 1(17) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 3(16) 1(17) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) 1(13) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 3( 3) 20(23) 21(44) 9(53) 1(54) X(54) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 7(18) 1(19) X(19) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 13(13) 20(33) 3(36) 4(40) X(40) X(40) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ANDROS 34 1 28(29) 17(46) 1(47) 2(49) X(49) X(49) ANDROS 50 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) GREAT EXUMA 34 4 12(16) 4(20) 1(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) MAYAGUANA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) HAVANA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 5( 5) 14(19) 4(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 4 23(27) 4(31) X(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) CAMAGUEY 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 69 X(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 215N 768W 34 26 21(47) 2(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) 12 215N 768W 50 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 12 215N 768W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 229N 785W 34 2 44(46) 15(61) 2(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) 24 229N 785W 50 X 8( 8) 8(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 24 229N 785W 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 36 246N 800W 34 X 11(11) 41(52) 10(62) 4(66) 1(67) X(67) 36 246N 800W 50 X 1( 1) 15(16) 8(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27) 36 246N 800W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 48 266N 804W 34 X 2( 2) 22(24) 25(49) 13(62) 1(63) X(63) 48 266N 804W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 6(26) 1(27) 1(28) 48 266N 804W 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) 72 310N 800W 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 32(40) 10(50) 1(51) 72 310N 800W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 5(24) 2(26) 72 310N 800W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 1(14) 96 340N 775W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 15(32) 5(37) 96 340N 775W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 2(15) 96 340N 775W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 120 360N 750W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 9(27) 120 360N 750W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 120 360N 750W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 45 55 70 75 75 70 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:36 UTC