ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1500 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 4(16) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 7(23) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) PT GALLINAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 6(30) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 5(26) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 17(29) 5(34) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 9(23) 3(26) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 4(20) X(20) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) X(17) 1(18) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 13(38) 2(40) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) 1(17) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 29(42) 2(44) 1(45) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 1(17) 1(18) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 20(44) 1(45) 1(46) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) X(16) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LES CAYES 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 13(21) 4(25) X(25) 1(26) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) CAPE BEATA 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 142N 685W 34 23 11(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) 12 142N 685W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 12 142N 685W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 150N 711W 34 1 30(31) 11(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) 24 150N 711W 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 24 150N 711W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 159N 736W 34 X 3( 3) 30(33) 11(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47) 36 159N 736W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) 36 159N 736W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 169N 760W 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 25(33) 13(46) 1(47) X(47) 48 169N 760W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) 48 169N 760W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 72 190N 805W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 9(41) 2(43) 72 190N 805W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) 1(17) 72 190N 805W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 96 215N 845W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 6(31) 96 215N 845W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 96 215N 845W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 120 235N 875W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 10(21) 120 235N 875W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 120 235N 875W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 55 65 65 65 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:36 UTC