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Hurricane EMILY (Text)

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HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052005
0900Z MON JUL 18 2005
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM CABO ROJO NORTHWARD TO THE TEXAS BORDER.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE
SOUTH TEXAS COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE TO BAFFIN BAY.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM CABO ROJO MEXICO NORTHWARD
TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO
CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER.  THIS WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N  88.0W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  25SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT.......100NE  40SE  25SW  50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 125SE  50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N  88.0W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N  87.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.6N  90.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  15SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  40SE  25SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE  75SE  50SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.9N  92.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  25SE  15SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  40SE  25SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE  75SE  50SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.8N  95.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  40SE  40SW 100NW.
34 KT...130NE  75SE  75SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.4N  97.7W...ON THE COASTLINE
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE  40SE  30SW  75NW.
34 KT...130NE  75SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 25.0N 103.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N  88.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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