ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED OCT 19 2005 THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO BE RE-CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING ISSUED AGAIN. MY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KT IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIRA/NESDIS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT...SO ONLY VERY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST...280/9. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...THAT IS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OF SIXTEEN-E...IS LIKELY TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. IN 3-5 DAYS...THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL PROBABLY BECOME VERY WEAK BY THAT TIME. THUS...LITTLE MOVEMENT IS FORECAST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 12.2N 113.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 12.3N 115.0W 25 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 12.5N 116.9W 25 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 12.7N 118.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 13.2N 119.8W 35 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 14.0N 121.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z 14.5N 122.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 24/1200Z 14.5N 122.0W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 19-Oct-2005 14:40:23 UTC