ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT OCT 15 2005 VISIBLE AND EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT A SMALL CIRCULATION CENTER JUST BENEATH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT 25 KT...AS DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLIES CONTINUE TO HAMPER DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE MODERATE SHEAR WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKENING TREND...BASED OFF OF THE SHIPS...WITH THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION IS 270/3. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST A RELATIVELY WEAK LOW/MID-LAYER EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD WEST TO SOUTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE REMNANT LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT WILL REFLECT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION BEYOND 48 HOURS...AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE SHALLOW MEAN BAM. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 11.0N 102.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 11.0N 102.7W 25 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 11.0N 103.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 17/1200Z 10.9N 104.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 18/0000Z 10.7N 104.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 19/0000Z 10.3N 107.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 16-Oct-2005 02:55:26 UTC