ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005 THE REMAINING CONVECTION IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE EXPOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...WITH THE LOS CABOS MEXICO RADAR DEPICTING INFREQUENT WEAK RAINBANDS MOVING OVER THE COAST OF BAJA JUST SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS ARE DECREASING...30 TO 35 KT...BUT THE CI REMAINS AT 45 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY AS A COMPROMISE. THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AGREE ON DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS...BEFORE REACHING THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT...HOWEVER RETAINS THE SYSTEM AS A 20 KT REMNANT LOW MOVING ONSHORE IN 48 HOURS...AND DISSIPATES IT OVER THE PENINSULA IN 96 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 340/5. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NOGAPS...THE GFDL...AND THE UKMET...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW SUGGEST A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT COMMENCING AROUND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD...AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH LIFTS OUT AND THE LOW/MID- LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO WOULD KEEP OTIS AWAY FROM THE COAST UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED THREE MODEL CLUSTER...INDICATING A WEAK LOW MOVING ONSHORE IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 23.4N 112.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 24.1N 112.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 25.0N 113.3W 25 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 25.9N 113.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 05/0000Z 26.9N 113.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 06/0000Z 28.4N 113.8W 20 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 03-Oct-2005 02:55:26 UTC