ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005 AFTER LOOKING A LITTLE RAGGED AT ABOUT 00Z...OTIS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE EYE CLEARING OUT AND THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS COOLING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM SAB...AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA. BASED ON THE RECENTLY IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE MEXICAN RADAR AT LOS CABOS INDICATES THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/4...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE SLOWER THAN THAT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/ UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 32N122W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO NEAR 23N124W. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS IS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 115W...AND THIS RIDGE IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR SOMEWHAT BLOCKING THE FORWARD MOTION OF OTIS DURING THE EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS BROAD DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LOW FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...SHOUDL CAUSE OTIS TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HR...THEN GRADUALLY RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. ALL GUIDANCE SAVE THE ECMWF NOW AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE UKMET CALLS FOR A FASTER AND MORE EASTWARD MOTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TURN OTIS MORE WESTWARD AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BETWEEN 24-96 HR...CALLING FOR OTIS TO MAKE LANDFALL IN CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 48 HR...AND MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO IN A LITTLE OVER 72 HR. THE NEW TRACK IS JUST TO THE LEFT AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS MODELS GUNS AND GUNA. OTIS IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO GRADUALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A HURRICANE STRONGER THAN OTIS IS NOW. BASED ON THIS...THE GOOD EYE STRUCTURE...AND LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR OTIS TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KT IN ABOUT 24 HR. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE PEAK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE...90 KT IS STRONGER THAN THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. THUS...OTIS MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AS MUCH AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. AFTER 24 HR...COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE WEAKENING. WHILE A 120 HR POINT IS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE SURFACE CENTER OF OTIS COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE UNITED STATES...ALTHOUGH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL CENTER SHOULD STILL EXIST. THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE FOR 24 HR OR MORE. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 21.7N 111.4W 80 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 22.4N 111.9W 85 KT 24HR VT 02/0000Z 23.3N 112.2W 90 KT 36HR VT 02/1200Z 24.7N 112.5W 80 KT 48HR VT 03/0000Z 26.3N 112.7W 70 KT 72HR VT 04/0000Z 29.0N 112.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 05/0000Z 32.0N 112.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 06/0000Z 35.5N 110.5W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 01-Oct-2005 02:55:23 UTC