ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2005 AN SSMI OVERPASS NEAR 04Z SUGGESTS THE CENTER MAY BE A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND A SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO THE RIGHT HAS BEEN MADE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/7. THE CURRENT STEERING IS BEING PROVIDED BY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AND THEN BUILD WESTWARD. BY THAT TIME...NORMA WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND BE INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...LARGELY BECAUSE OF THE ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL POSITION...AND IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE PAST FEW IR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE FORWARD SPEED MAY BE INCREASING...BUT I WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION BY SUBSEQUENT MICROWAVE DATA BEFORE MAKING SUCH AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST TRACK. THE CENTER REMAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION... WHICH HAS DIMINISHED SHARPLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z RANGED FROM 35 TO 45 KT. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 01Z JUST MISSED THE CENTER...BUT THERE WERE SOME 40 KT VECTORS DOWNWIND OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND SO THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE PASS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT THE WIND RADII NEEDED TO BE EXPANDED. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR STILL APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING THE ORGANIZATION OF NORMA...AND WITHIN ANOTHER 24 HOURS COOLER WATERS BECOME AN ADDITIONAL DRAG ON THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. IF NORMA IS INDEED MOVING MORE TO THE RIGHT OR FASTER THAN PRESUMED HERE THEN DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW COULD OCCUR IN AS LITTLE AS 24 HOURS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 19.4N 113.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 20.3N 114.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 21.1N 115.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 27/1800Z 21.5N 116.3W 30 KT 48HR VT 28/0600Z 21.5N 117.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 29/0600Z 21.0N 119.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/0600Z 20.5N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 01/0600Z 20.0N 123.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 26-Sep-2005 09:10:23 UTC