ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005 MAX HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH BANDING FEATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES AN ELONGATION IN THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE WITH SOME STRATACUMULUS BEGINNING TO BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF MAX APPEARS TO BE IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AT THE PRESENT TIME. WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM BOTH AFWA AND TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT. MAX HAS NOW MOVED NORTH OF 20 DEGREES LATITUDE WHERE SSTS ARE BELOW 26 DEGREE CELSIUS. THESE COOLER WATERS SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN MAX THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS REPRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 320/9. MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT IS BEING STEERED BY THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER WESTERN TEXAS. IN TWO DAYS...ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD NORTHWEST OF MAX WHICH WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. MAX IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN FIVE DAYS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST THE CYCLONE MOVES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 20.2N 119.5W 65 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 20.9N 120.4W 60 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 21.6N 121.6W 50 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 21.8N 122.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 22/1800Z 21.8N 124.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 23/1800Z 21.9N 126.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 24/1800Z 21.5N 128.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 25/1800Z 20.5N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 20-Sep-2005 20:55:22 UTC