ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005 NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS PERSISTED THROUGHOUT DAY AND ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION OF KENNETH HAS WEAKENED. DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH DATA T-NUMBERS OF 5.0...90 KT...FROM TAFB AND 4.0...65 KT...FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO A GENEROUS 90 KT. SINCE SSTS REMAIN ABOVE 27 DEGREES CELSIUS IN THE AREA...SOME BURSTS OF CONVECTION MAY STILL REDEVELOP. THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO RELAX RESULTING IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLING FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING. KENNETH SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 36 HOURS IF NOT SOONER. KENNETH HAS REMAINED STATIONARY FOR THE LAST NINE HOURS. KENNETH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A COL REGION...AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE ALLOWING KENNETH TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 13.4N 130.5W 90 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 13.5N 130.7W 80 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 13.8N 131.4W 70 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 14.2N 132.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 14.9N 132.7W 55 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 16.5N 134.3W 50 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 18.0N 136.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 24/1800Z 19.0N 138.0W 40 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 19-Sep-2005 20:55:21 UTC