ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2005 A VERY SMALL EYE CAN BE SEEN ON SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY. THE NORTHERLY SHEAR...RESULTED BY THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER HURRICANE JOVA TO THE WEST...CONTINUES TO IMPEDE THE CIRCULATION OF KENNETH. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ARE CONTINUING TO LOWER...DATA T-NUMBERS ARE 5.5...102 KT FROM TAFB AND 5.0...90 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 100 KT AT ADVISORY TIME. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE NORTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO HAMPER ANY FURTHER REDEVELOPMENT. THE CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER THE LAST FEW IMAGES HAVE INDICATED NEARLY STATIONARY MOTION. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE DIVERGENT FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...WHETHER TO TRACK KENNETH IN A SMALL LOOP OR MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THE CYCLONE SLOWLY TO THE WEST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THEREAFTER. KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FLOW ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...AND CLOSE TO CONU. FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 13.4N 130.5W 100 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 13.4N 130.9W 90 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 13.6N 131.3W 80 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 13.9N 131.8W 70 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 14.3N 132.3W 65 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 15.9N 133.9W 60 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z 17.0N 135.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 24/1200Z 18.0N 136.5W 40 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 19-Sep-2005 20:55:21 UTC