ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT AQUA-1 MICROWAVE OVERPASS DEPICT CONSIDERABLE EXPANSION OF THE OUTER BANDS THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE INNER CORE CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER COMPACT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AFWA REMAIN UNCHANGED...AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE WIND RADII OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY. THE WATER IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS LIGHT ALLOWING FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THE 48 HOUR PERIOD...THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE JOVA TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE SHIPS MODEL...GFS...AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST INCREASING UPPER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES APPROACHING THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/8. THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER JOVA IN A WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD REDUCE IN FORWARD MOTION AND BEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE GUNA AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER BEYOND DAY 3. FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 12.3N 136.9W 75 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 12.3N 138.3W 80 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 12.6N 139.9W 85 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 13.1N 141.3W 85 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 13.7N 142.3W 80 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 15.0N 144.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 16.0N 146.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 22/0000Z 17.5N 148.0W 60 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 17-Sep-2005 03:10:19 UTC