ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT JOVA REMAINS A COMPACT STORM...WITH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND TOPS TO -80C NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE CENTER. A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS SUGGESTS AN EYE IS PRESENT UNDER THE OVERCAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB...AND 65 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/9...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. JOVA SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE FOR 48 HR OR SO...THEN TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON THE TRACK...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AFTER 72 HR...MOST NOTABLY BETWEEN THE FASTER NOGAPS AND THE SLOWER GFS AND GFDL. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. JOVA REMAINS OVER 28C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLLOW CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION FOR AT LEAST 24-36 HR...AND IT IS POSSIBLE JOVA COULD GET STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AFTER 36 HR...THE SSTS GRADUALLY BEGIN COOLING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 12.8N 135.0W 70 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 12.7N 136.7W 75 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 12.8N 138.7W 80 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 13.1N 140.3W 80 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 13.5N 141.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 19/1200Z 14.5N 143.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 20/1200Z 15.5N 146.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 21/1200Z 17.0N 148.0W 60 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 16-Sep-2005 15:10:18 UTC