ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PERSISTENT STRONG CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS WITHIN A RELATIVELY SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. DESPITE THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE...DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO T4.5 AND T4.0 RESPECTIVELY...WHILE AFWA REMAINS STEADY AT T4.0. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KT...MAKING JOVA THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2005 SEASON. JOVA REMAINS IN A LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM SST ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SUPPORTS FURTHER STRENGTHENING FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR IN THE 24-48 HOUR TIME FRAME WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN JOVA... WHILE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE GFDL STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE TO 82 KT AND 102 KT RESPECTIVELY IN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD SHIPS AND TAKE THE SYSTEM TO 75 KT IN 24-48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...JOVA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SSTS. SHIPS GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A LESS-FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BRING THE INTENSITY DOWN TO 60 KT BY 120 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/11. A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...THE RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE JOVA TO SLOW AND TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS...THEN DIVERGES IN THE 72-120 HOUR TIME FRAME...WITH NOGAPS MUCH FASTER AND THE GFS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSEST TO THE GFDL AND CONSENSUS MODELS...PARTICULARLY AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. FORECASTER MOLLEDA/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 13.0N 134.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 12.8N 136.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 12.7N 138.2W 75 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 13.0N 140.0W 75 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 13.5N 141.3W 75 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 14.5N 143.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 20/0600Z 15.5N 145.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 21/0600Z 16.5N 147.5W 60 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 16-Sep-2005 08:55:34 UTC