ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU AUG 25 2005 THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ALMOST ENTIRELY ON CONTINUITY...AS THE CENTER IS IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE IN INFRARED OR NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY...AND THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNCHANGED IN GRADUALLY BENDING THE TRACK TO THE WEST IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HILARY IS OVER 22C SSTS AND IS NO LONGER GENERATING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT ASSUMES SOME WEAKENING SINCE AN 01Z QUIKSCAT PASS THAT HAD NUMEROUS 40 KT VECTORS. IF NO NEW DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS...HILARY WILL DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 23.7N 120.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 24.4N 121.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 26/1200Z 25.1N 123.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 27/0000Z 25.6N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 27/1200Z 26.0N 128.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 28/1200Z 26.0N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 25-Aug-2005 14:40:14 UTC