ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON AUG 22 2005 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HILARY HAS FORMED A POORLY DEFINED EYE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS FORMATION HAS BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY A WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE EYE...SO THAT THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 90 KT. THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE HURRICANE CURRENTLY HAS GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/16. HILARY IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC. LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A WEAKNESS WILL FORM IN THE RIDGE NORTH OF HILARY AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA IN 24-48 HR. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE TROUGH WILL NOT EXTEND FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD TO TURN HILARY TO THE NORTH...WITH THE FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE CALLING FOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS HILARY PASSES SOUTH OF THE WEAKNESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...CALLING FOR HILARY TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL DECELERATION THROUGH 72 HR. AFTER THAT...THE GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION UNDER A RIDGE WEST OF THE WEAKNESS...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN A WESTWARD BEND OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CORE OF HILARY ARE STARTING TO COOL...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THEY ARE STILL 28C-29C. THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ALLOW WEAKENING EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 HR FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND. THE FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...ALTHOUGH IT IS WEAKER THAN SHIPS BY 96-120 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 18.1N 110.7W 90 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 18.9N 112.6W 100 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 19.7N 114.7W 95 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 20.2N 116.3W 90 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 20.6N 117.7W 80 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 21.5N 120.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 22.5N 122.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 27/0600Z 23.0N 126.0W 25 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 22-Aug-2005 08:40:11 UTC