ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT AUG 20 2005 THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN THINNED OUT A LITTLE LATE THIS MORNING... BUT BURSTS CONTINUE NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES REMAIN... ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED AT 55 KT... AS IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. EVEN THOUGH THE INTENSITY HAS LEVELLED OFF SINCE THIS MORNING... THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR... AND SSTS GREATER THAN 29C... ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING TO RESUME SOON AND TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHIPS AND THE INTERPOLATED GFDL GUIDANCE BOTH CONTINUE TO FORECAST A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 90 KT WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HILARY HAS FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS APPEARED TO BE MOVING JUST SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH OF DUE WEST AND LITTLE LESS QUICKLY... AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 280/14. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CURRENT MOTION SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HILARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THEREAFTER... THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT HILARY WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND LATER THE NORTHWEST... INTO AN EVENTUAL WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. HOWEVER... THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING HOW MUCH HILARY WILL TURN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. NOGAPS AND GFDN FORECAST A DUE NORTH MOTION TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA... BUT THE GFS AND GFDL SHOW MUCH LESS OF A TURN AND INSTEAD A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH FIVE DAYS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN... CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. RAINBANDS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO ESCONDIDO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 14.4N 103.2W 55 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 14.8N 105.3W 65 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 15.4N 107.9W 75 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 16.1N 110.3W 85 KT 48HR VT 22/1800Z 17.0N 112.2W 90 KT 72HR VT 23/1800Z 18.5N 115.5W 85 KT 96HR VT 24/1800Z 20.5N 117.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 25/1800Z 22.5N 119.0W 60 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 20-Aug-2005 20:40:13 UTC