ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI AUG 19 2005 THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING AND CONSISTS OF A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A FEW CONVECTIVE BANDS BUT DEVOID OF AN INNER CONVECTIVE CORE. SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THEREFORE...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED AND THE DEPRESSION COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE REACHING COOLER WATERS BY DAY 5. BECAUSE THE PRESENCE OF VARIOUS SMALL CIRCULATION CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MUCH LARGER GYRE...IT IS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE THE INITIAL MOTION. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS AROUND A WELL ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE UNITED STATES WESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BUT IS EXPECTED TO ERODE ON ITS WESTERN PORTION AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES BY THE AREA. THIS WOULD RESULT ON A TRACK A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT. MOST OF THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE. SOME RAINBANDS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 13.6N 97.7W 25 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 14.0N 100.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 14.5N 102.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 15.5N 105.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 16.5N 108.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 18.5N 112.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 20.0N 115.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 24/1800Z 21.0N 117.0W 60 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 19-Aug-2005 20:40:13 UTC