ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI AUG 19 2005 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CIRCULATION AND CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SINCE THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE UNITED STATES WESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO AND THE PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND WILL LIKELY FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT THE GFDL AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS AND CLIMATOLOGY. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THEREFORE...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. THE LATTER MAKES THE DEPRESSION A POWERFUL 100-KT HURRICANE. BY DAY 5...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE NEARING COOLER WATERS...SO THE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD LEVEL OFF. SOME RAINBANDS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 13.2N 95.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 13.8N 97.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 14.5N 99.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 15.0N 101.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 15.5N 103.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 17.5N 107.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z 19.5N 111.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 24/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W 60 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 19-Aug-2005 14:55:13 UTC