ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005 GREG REMAINS COMPLETELY SHEARED ABOUT 100 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS FROM A DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST IS STREAMING WESTWARD TOWARD THE CYCLONE... AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT 200 MB EASTERLIES ARE GOING TO INCREASE OVER GREG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW KEEPS THE CYCLONE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY AS FORECAST...THIS WOULD REPRESENT MORE THAN ENOUGH SHEAR TO KILL GREG OFF. HOWEVER...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SHOW SIGNIFICANT REINTENSIFICATION...AND OUT OF RESPECT FOR THIS GUIDANCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT SHOW DISSIPATION AT THIS TIME. THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY. VIRTUALLY ALL THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH MEANDERS GREG FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE PULLING IT NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE BACK OF THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST. THE WESTWARD OPTION MAKES SENSE IF GREG SHOULD RE-DEVELOP DEEP CONVECTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS NO NET MOTION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...ASSUMES THAT GREG WILL REMAIN A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND QUALITATIVELY FOLLOWS THE ECMWF SCENARIO. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT GREG WILL IN FACT SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR LONGER THAN A DAY OR SO. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 14.4N 115.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 14.5N 115.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 14.5N 115.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 15-Aug-2005 02:40:13 UTC